Projected Indonesian eCommerce Market by 2030

Indonesia’s eCommerce industry is one of the fastest-growing sectors in the country, reflecting a young, driven population and a culture of innovation. With around half the population currently online, the country is primed for continued eCommerce growth in the coming years.

In this article, we’ll explore the factors driving eCommerce expansion in Indonesia, while highlighting potential roadblocks and ways in which merchants can overcome these challenges to succeed in the market.



The Potential of Indonesian eCommerce in 2030

Indonesia’s eCommerce market has been growing rapidly in recent years, with a current valuation of $40 billion. However, this is just the tip of the iceberg, as projections indicate that the market could reach an astounding $130 billion by 2030. This represents a huge opportunity for businesses operating in the eCommerce space, as well as for the broader Indonesian economy.


Here are the factors that driving the growth of eCommerce in Indonesia:

  • The expanding middle class in India: As more and more Indonesians enter the middle class, they are increasingly turning to eCommerce as a way to purchase goods and services. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years, as Indonesia’s economy continues to grow and more people are lifted out of poverty.
  • The expanding role of digital payments: With the rise of mobile banking and other digital payment platforms, it has become easier than ever for Indonesians to make purchases online. This has helped to fuel the growth of eCommerce in the country, as consumers are able to shop from the comfort of their own homes and pay for their purchases with just a few clicks.
  • COVID-19 crisis: With physical retail stores closed or operating at reduced capacity, many consumers have turned to online shopping as a way to get the products they need. This has led to a surge in demand for eCommerce services, and has helped to cement the role of eCommerce as a key driver of economic growth in Indonesia.


Looking ahead to 2030, the potential for eCommerce in Indonesia is enormous. With a young and tech-savvy ppoulation, a rapidly growing middle class, and a favorable regulatory environment, the country is well-positioned to become a major player in the global eCommerce market. However, businesses operating in the space will need to be nimble and adaptable in order to take advantage of this opportunity, as the market is sure to be fiercely competitive.


Factors Contributing to the Growth of Indonesian eCommerce


  • A Growing Middle Class with Growing Internet Penetration

The middle class in Indonesia is growing rapidly, currently standing at over 130 million people or 49% of the population. This burgeoning middle class is driving the growth of the Indonesian economy, with disposable incomes increasing and consumer spending on the rise. As a result, eCommerce growth in Indonesia is expected to continue to grow at a rapid pace.

Meanwhile, internet penetration in Indonesia is also on an upward trajectory, with over 100 million people currently online, and over half of the population expected to be online by 2025. This growing number of potential customers will further stimulate eCommerce growth, making it easier for merchants to reach a wider audience and increase their sales.


  • COVID-19’s Influence

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the eCommerce landscape in Indonesia. With traditional brick-and-mortar shops closing their doors, online retail has become the go-to option for many consumers. The pandemic has accelerated the move toward eCommerce, with its effects likely to continue long after the pandemic has subsided.

As a result, eCommerce merchants in Indonesia are now better equipped than ever to meet the needs of their customers. With a greater focus on online retail, merchants are investing in new technologies and strategies to enhance their eCommerce offerings, making it easier and more convenient for customers to shop online.


  • Increasing use of Digital Payments in Indonesia

Indonesia’s eCommerce growth is driven by the increasing use of digital payments. With a young, smartphone-savvy population, digital payments are becoming increasingly popular, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. The convenience and ease of use of digital payments have made it the preferred choice for many merchants and customers, a trend that is set to continue.

As digital payments become more prevalent, eCommerce merchants in Indonesia are taking steps to ensure that their payment systems are secure and reliable. This includes implementing advanced encryption technologies and partnering with trusted payment processors to ensure that their customers’ financial information is kept safe.


  • Increasing use of Alternate Payments in Indonesia

Although digital payments have become more prevalent, many Indonesians still prefer traditional-style payments, including direct bank transfers and cash payments. However, alternate payments such as secure digital wallets and alternative payment cards are expected to continue to supplement traditional digital payments, increasing opportunities for merchants operating in the market.

As eCommerce continues to grow in Indonesia, merchants will need to adapt to the changing payment landscape, offering a wide range of payment options to meet the diverse needs of their customers. By doing so, they will be able to increase their sales and gain a competitive edge in the rapidly expanding Indonesian eCommerce market.



Roadblocks to eCommerce Growth

The eCommerce industry is rapidly growing in Indonesia, but it still faces some roadblocks that prevent it from reaching its full potential. These roadblocks include:


  • Transport infrastructure: The current transport infrastructure in Indonesia is not well-developed, which makes it difficult for eCommerce merchants to deliver products to customers in a timely manner. This can lead to customer dissatisfaction and a loss of business.
  • Financial inclusion: Many Indonesians still do not have access to financial services, which makes it difficult for them to make online purchases. This limits the potential customer base for eCommerce merchants.
  • Investment: To address these issues, significant investment is needed in transport infrastructure and financial inclusion. However, this investment requires a partnership between the government and private investors, which can be difficult to achieve.


What can merchants do about these roadblocks to eCommerce?

While these roadblocks may seem daunting, there are still steps that eCommerce merchants can take to overcome them and continue to grow their businesses in Indonesia:


  • Focus on customer retention: In a competitive digital environment, it’s important for eCommerce merchants to focus on customer retention. This can be achieved by enhancing customer services, such as offering personalized recommendations and providing excellent customer support.
  • Leverage advantages: Indonesian and foreign merchants can leverage their advantages to thrive in the eCommerce sector in the country. For example, merchants can focus on selling products that are in high demand in Indonesia, such as fashion and beauty products.
  • Partner with local businesses: Partnering with local businesses can help eCommerce merchants overcome some of the roadblocks they face. For example, partnering with a local logistics company can help improve delivery times and reduce shipping costs.


In conclusion, while the eCommerce industry in Indonesia still faces roadblocks, there are steps that merchants can take to overcome them and continue to grow their businesses. By focusing on customer retention, leveraging their advantages, and partnering with local businesses, eCommerce merchants can thrive in the competitive digital environment in Indonesia.



International linkages and matured tech infrastructure

Beyond the local economic progress, international linkages are an essential factor driving Indonesia’s projected boom in eCommerce. Indonesia presents exciting and growing business opportunities for foreign technology companies, and Facebook, Amazon, Google, Alibaba, and Tencent, have already set their sights on the country as part of their global expansion strategies. These multinational corporations are attracted to Indonesia’s vast potential market, which is the fourth most populous country in the world with over 270 million people.

Indonesia’s strategic location in Southeast Asia also makes it a gateway to the wider region, offering access to a market of over 650 million people. This makes Indonesia an attractive destination for foreign investors who are looking to expand their businesses into the ASEAN market. With the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in place, Indonesia is well-positioned to become a hub for eCommerce in the region.

Moreover, Indonesia’s tech infrastructure has matured rapidly in recent years. The government has invested heavily in building digital fiber optic networks that connect remote areas of the country, enabling seamless online transactions. This infrastructure is critical to eCommerce growth, as it allows businesses to reach customers in even the most remote areas of the archipelago. This has opened up new opportunities for small and medium-sized businesses to participate in the eCommerce boom, as they can now access customers beyond their local markets.

Indonesia’s mobile penetration rate is also among the highest in the world, with over 170 million smartphone users. This has led to the rapid growth of mobile commerce (mCommerce), which is expected to become the dominant form of eCommerce in Indonesia in the coming years. The rise of mCommerce has also spurred the development of mobile payment solutions, such as OVO, GoPay, and Dana, which have made online transactions more accessible and convenient for Indonesian consumers.

Overall, Indonesia’s international linkages and matured tech infrastructure are key drivers of the country’s projected boom in eCommerce. With a large and growing market, a strategic location in Southeast Asia, and a rapidly maturing tech infrastructure, Indonesia is well-positioned to become a major eCommerce hub in the region.


Projected Domestic cable network stability and growth

Indonesia has been experiencing a steady growth in the telecommunications industry, with the domestic cable network being one of the main drivers of this growth. The country has a population of over 260 million people, with more than 170 million internet users. However, despite the high number of internet users, the country still faces challenges in terms of internet connectivity, especially in remote areas.

The government has been working to address these challenges by investing in the expansion of the domestic cable network. The aim is to increase the capacity and reach of the network, which will enable more people in remote areas to access the internet. This will not only improve the quality of life for people living in these areas, but it will also provide opportunities for businesses to expand their reach and tap into new markets.

The expansion of the domestic cable network will also have a significant impact on the eCommerce industry in Indonesia. With more people having access to the internet, the demand for online services is expected to increase. This will create opportunities for eCommerce businesses to provide faster and more efficient services, in line with customer needs.

Furthermore, the improved connectivity will also benefit other industries such as education and healthcare. With faster internet speeds, students in remote areas will be able to access online learning resources, while healthcare professionals will be able to provide remote consultations and access to medical information.

In conclusion, the projected growth and stability of the domestic cable network in Indonesia presents a significant opportunity for businesses and individuals alike. The expansion of the network will not only improve the quality of life for people in remote areas, but it will also create new opportunities for businesses to expand their reach and tap into new markets.




Indonesia’s eCommerce industry is poised for significant growth over the next decade, with projections indicating that it could become a $130 billion market by 2030. The country’s large and growing middle class, coupled with expanding internet penetration and digital payments, presents a tremendous opportunity for eCommerce merchants.

Though the industry faces roadblocks, such as inadequate infrastructure, there remains significant potential for international upsides and further investment. By continuing to focus on customer retention strategies and responsive management techniques, eCommerce merchants can make great strides towards success and growth.

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